📊 I analyzed 3000 options trades to verify a popular Reddit post about "option flow" services
Following up on a previous post about percentage performance in options flow ( [https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1ivu8ju/i\_analyzed\_over\_5000\_option\_flow\_trades\_so\_you/](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1ivu8ju/i_analyzed_over_5000_option_flow_trades_so_you/) ), I dug deeper into the data. The results were quite interesting.
**TL;DR:** The original post claimed 27% win rate. My analysis shows slightly better results, but still confirms most trades lose money! 🎯
# 🔍 The Analysis (For detailed analysis and charts visit: [https://scalarfield.io/analysis/c2bf1709-7507-4a71-9fbf-83e564807352](https://scalarfield.io/analysis/c2bf1709-7507-4a71-9fbf-83e564807352) )
I analyzed **2,992 options trades** across different strike prices and moneyness levels. Here's what I found:
# 📈 Overall Performance
* **Success rate: 35.06%** (better than the claimed 27%, but still not great!)
* **Median P/L: -$0.32** per trade (yep, that's negative 😬)
* **Average P/L: $7.53** (skewed by some big winners)
# 💰 Risk/Reward Breakdown
* **Winning trades:** average gain of **$26.28** 🟢
* **Losing trades:** average loss of **$2.75** 🔴
* **Profit factor:** 9.57 (sounds good until you realize only 35% of trades win!)
# 🎯 Success Rate by Option Type
*(from worst to best)*
1. **Deep OTM:** 23.4% (lottery tickets, anyone? 🎲)
2. **Near OTM:** 29.0%
3. **Near ITM:** 34.0%
4. **ITM:** 34.7%
5. **OTM:** 40.1%
6. **Deep ITM:** 46.4% (safest but most expensive 💸)
# 🤔 What This Means
1. The original Reddit post was **RIGHT** about option flow services being questionable
2. Even with slightly better numbers, **65% of trades still LOSE money**
3. Deep OTM options are basically gambling (only 23.4% success rate!)
4. The safest bets are Deep ITM options, but they require more capital
# 💡 Key Takeaways
* Don't blindly follow "option flow" alerts
* If you must trade options, stick to ITM or Deep ITM for better odds
* The median trade losing money (-$0.32) shows how tough this game is
* The high profit factor (9.57) is misleading due to low win rate
*Remember: Past performance doesn't guarantee future results! Always do your own research and never trade money you can't afford to lose!* 🎓
📊 I analyzed 3000 options trades to verify a popular Reddit post about "option flow" services
**TL;DR:** The original post claimed 27% win rate. My analysis shows slightly better results, but still confirms most trades lose money! 🎯
# 🔍 The Analysis
I analyzed **2,992 options trades** across different strike prices and moneyness levels. Here's what I found:
# 📈 Overall Performance
* **Success rate: 35.06%** (better than the claimed 27%, but still not great!)
* **Median P/L: -$0.32** per trade (yep, that's negative 😬)
* **Average P/L: $7.53** (skewed by some big winners)
# 💰 Risk/Reward Breakdown
* **Winning trades:** average gain of **$26.28** 🟢
* **Losing trades:** average loss of **$2.75** 🔴
* **Profit factor:** 9.57 (sounds good until you realize only 35% of trades win!)
# 🎯 Success Rate by Option Type
*(from worst to best)*
1. **Deep OTM:** 23.4% (lottery tickets, anyone? 🎲)
2. **Near OTM:** 29.0%
3. **Near ITM:** 34.0%
4. **ITM:** 34.7%
5. **OTM:** 40.1%
6. **Deep ITM:** 46.4% (safest but most expensive 💸)
# 🤔 What This Means
1. The original Reddit post was **RIGHT** about option flow services being questionable
2. Even with slightly better numbers, **65% of trades still LOSE money**
3. Deep OTM options are basically gambling (only 23.4% success rate!)
4. The safest bets are Deep ITM options, but they require more capital
# 💡 Key Takeaways
* Don't blindly follow "option flow" alerts
* If you must trade options, stick to ITM or Deep ITM for better odds
* The median trade losing money (-$0.32) shows how tough this game is
* The high profit factor (9.57) is misleading due to low win rate
*Remember: Past performance doesn't guarantee future results! Always do your own research and never trade money you can't afford to lose!* 🎓