Ivanhoe mines double bottom today. Low IV. Yolo’d in today (IVPAF in Murica)
Ivanhoe flagship asset is located in Kolwezi, Congo. Currently a rebel army M23 from Rwanda has taken over 2 cities near the border. Goma and Bukavu. Both of these cities are shit holes with millions in population but were overtaken by M23’s minuscule 8000 man army last week. This is what they look like: 10 guys with tiny guns cramming into the back of 15 year old Toyota trucks: https://imgur.com/a/Ed6Rmlo
Ivanhoes asset Kamoa Kakula is a massive copper mine 40% owned by the Chinese. It’s located 1600km away from the conflict zone. These guys trucks wouldn’t even be able to make the drive without breaking down even if they wanted to come after it. Their army is also so caveman/obsolete if there ever was a threat the Chinese could send 1 drone and end the war. All of the copper gets shipped to China. There’s zero chance the operations will be affected by this conflict.
But due to the scare of something happening IVN investors have been selling causing a big dip. The conflict has been happening since the beginning of December leading IVN to dip from $20 to now the $14s. On Feb 3rd IVN dipped to mid $14’s just like today. Today marks a double bottom and on technicals should rebound to $17-18 within 1-2 weeks. IV is super cheap on this stock, a rise to $18 will make most options 5-15x depending what strike you gamble on. The Congo government is also declaring they will fight M23 and retake their cities. News of the conflict being contained to that region will be bullish for scared IVN sellers to buy back in.
Just last week IVN posted q4 financials and made a record $386mil US profit. Annualized is $1.5billion giving it a tiny PE of 8x. A new zinc mine in another region just came online during Q4 and will add another $100mil to Q1 profits as well as a new mega smelter competed at K&K during our current quarter which will add $0.30 profit for every pound of copper sold. It’s trading at only 4x 2026 profits. This is a great stock to go long on as well as short options and the time to enter is now.
Positions:
4800 shares
$13.50c March 14th x30
$16c March 7th x20
$24c Jan 2027 x3
Cash secured puts $14 March 21st x10