Buy SAP by Jul 9, 2026.

**It’s not about price, but volume** **Falling prices in oil obscure the real damage in Hormuz** # [**Summary**]() **Thesis:** The Ceasefire between the US and Iran is fragile. Not oil prices will drive inflation, but the consequences of **physical oil supply constraints**. This will show first in Southeast Asian manufacturing. **Argument:** · Ceasefire included weapons checks at the strait, this will be a **bottleneck for the foreseeable future**. · Southeast Asia is particularly vulnerable to these disruptions, because of small …