Buy SPACEX by May 7, 2026.

Obviously, we're all aping into this. But I got curious about a specific question: when SpaceX IPOs, what are the actual odds that Day 1 is the bottom and it never looks back? Nobody tracks "never traded below IPO price" as a standalone stat. But you can "guess it" from first-day returns, long-run performance, delisting rates, and cohort snapshots. I had AI pull data on 9,343 U.S. IPOs going back to 1980. The answer is about 20–25% of the time. …