Strong Sell AMAT by May 13, 2025.

This is a short-dated, high-conviction downside bet on AMAT ahead of their earnings call this week. The setup isn’t about a catastrophic miss or some dramatic headline — it’s about fragility. Applied Materials has been riding the AI tailwind narrative with the rest of semis, but under the surface, they’re facing a unique set of risks: a DOJ investigation, growing geopolitical exposure to China, and a potential earnings call that’s walking into a narrative minefield. Meanwhile, IV is still depressed, …