Sell TLT by Dec 1, 2026.

The 10-year just broke 4.81% today. Highest since Nov 2023. We are up 80 bps since March and this selloff looks real. Between oil from the US-Iran escalations and Warsh sounding hawkish at Jackson Hole, the Fed is probably going to hike again on Sept 15 (CME tool says 66% chance). Bunds are spiking too and JGBs crossed 3% for the first time since 1996, so foreign buyers aren't coming to rescue our U.S. debt. Hard to see how stocks …