Sell SPY by Nov 2, 2026.

Two separate things are happening in the market simultaneously and most analysis treats them as separately. The Macro angle: Warsh is keeping rates flat while NGDP runs hot. Longer rates are already backing up, and that sequence historically ends one of four ways and none of them are comfortable for today's equity multiples. The Valuation angle: the S&P 500 earnings yield is 3.48% against a 4.59% 10-year treasury, negative by 1.11%. But that earnings yield has been inflated by companies …