Reposting in this sub.. personally I’ve been selling non-index positions to build up cash (~35% port) given the reasonable likelihood of a meaningful pullback this year. If this minor bump turns into the real thing, I’m starting to think and prepare for re-entry points and pulled this data which you may find interesting. This is all looking at S&P 500 and is the max draw down from highs in previous pull backs.
Other things to watch for when we are near bottom: 1) no more “I’m not selling posts” 2) smaller investing subreddits get popular again 3) the econ/market is doomed becomes broad public opinion 4) large gov’t intervention 5) some headline bankruptcies 6) people are afraid to lose their jobs 7) you personally have trouble seeing how things will get better 8) please add
+ 14.6%, 2022 before first rally
+ 24.5%, 2022 before second rally
+ 27.5%, 2022 max draw down
+ 35.5%, 2020
+ 20.1%, 2018
+ 14.5%, 2015
+ 20.8%, 2011
+ 22.7%, 08 pre lehman
+ 57.1%, 08 post lehman
+ 28.1%, dotcom before first rally
+ 38.2%, dotcom before second rally
+ 49.7%, dotcom max draw down
+ 20.1%, 1990
+ 19.0%, 1980 before first rally
+ 22.7%, 1980 before second rally
+ 27.3%, 1980 max draw down
+ 18.7%, 1978
+ 16.2%, 1973 before first rally
+ 24.2%, 1973 before second rally
+ 48.0%, 1973 max draw down
+ 9.9%, 1969 before first rally
+ 17.7%, 1969 before second rally
+ 35.4%, 1969 max draw down