**TL,DR:** Monday SANA Biotechnology will present 8 week interim analysis from their clinical trial curing diabetes, at 4 weeks it was perfect and spiked the stock to 7$, similar will occur Monday/Tuesday and at the 12 weeks analysis results at their earnings call March 23rd.
Background: I'm a biotechnologist with a PhD in Immunology (but only from France so what the fuck do I know) and I mostly play biotech companies.
SANA Biotechnology was overhyped as fuck when they IPO'd, so everybody and their grandma gave them a nice cash cushion which they blasted through for a couple years. What did they get? Well I'll tell you what they got now.
They have a cell engineering platform which lets them turn cells into pancreatic beta islets, the cells that naturally react to your blood sugar and regulate it via secretion of insulin, and they have a "hypoimmune" platform which knocks out the receptors for both T and NK cells so that these cells do not get attacked by the adaptive immune response, meaning they can mass produce pancreatic beta islets for transplantation into people. Nice in theory, so what can you use this for?
Well, it cures diabetes by a single injection depositing the cells under a belly muscle. How well does it work? They cured diabetic mice for at least 14 months, and they cured a diabetic monkey for 6 months before intentionally killing the cells. And, most importantly, in November of last year, they started their first phase I clinical trial in Sweden, with a single participant so far. [On January 7th, they presented the first analysis 4 weeks after injection](https://ir.sana.com/static-files/33b2aa85-6fb6-47cf-baa5-f97b587c8227), showing that their cells survive and are indeed not rejected by the immune system. This caused the stock to briefly spike from 1.7$ to 7.3$ before settling again and trending down over the past month again. But here's the thing - we know already that the treatment works in monkey and mouse for longer term, and as an immunologist I can tell you that if they aren't rejected after 4 weeks they likely won't be rejected after 8 or 12 weeks either, especially when it worked that way in monkeys.
SANA is presenting their interim analysis of 8 weeks on Monday , and I am expecting the results to confirm that their treatment continues to work, and they will be the first US company to cure diabetes this way. Another reason why I am confident this will work is that the Chinese have already done it ([but without hypoimmune platform, they just inject beta-islets with immunosuppression](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(24)01022-5)). On their earnings call (March 23rd) they will present the 3 months interim analysis and everybody will want to get in on this technology.
Last September, they were sitting on 200 Million in cash after losing 60 million per quarter, no debt, they expect their cash to last through 2026. The current results, if as positive as I expect them to be, will give them enough leverage to raise more cash in the mid-term and survive long enough to fulfill the hype of their IPO.
The bear case? They run out of cash and get bought up for cents on the dollar and all the profits go to who buys them. Alternatively, in 6 months the cells grow into a tumor and their killswitch antibody doesn't work and now the patients have a hypoimmune tumor, company goes bankrupt from getting sued. I'm willing to bet that doesn't happen.
My position:
2000 @ 1.77$ bought Jan 6
3000 @ 2.60$ bought today at close
I know, pitiful, but I'm literally running out of cash (Just finished my PhD, European income level). This is not investment advice, do your own research.