Am I wrong that today's IBM selloff is really an AI capex crowding out story, not a software demand story?

IBM warned this morning that clients are shifting quarterly capex toward servers, storage and memory to front run supply constrained infrastructure, and the stock is down over 20%. ServiceNow and Salesforce got dragged down with it, Accenture and Cognizant too.

Feels less like an IBM execution problem and more like capex crowding out playing out in real time, the marginal enterprise dollar rotating from software subscriptions into hardware ahead of the AI buildout. If that is right this should keep happening basically every quarter until the infrastructure spend cycle cools off, not just be a one time headline.

Am I wrong about the read, or is there a reason software spend snaps back once this round of hardware front running clears the channel. Curious what people who cover enterprise software or infra are seeing.