Had SPCX in my watchlist at $180 with competition is years away as the core thesis then Japan landed a rocket this weekend.

I want to be upfront , I know a 10m hop lasting 40 sec is not falcon 9 and I know spacex has been landing orbital class boosters since 2017ish .

But part of why I was watching SPCX was the thesis that meaningful reusable rocket competition was a decade away minimum and now japan successfully launched and landed a prototype and the day before, china achieved its first successful reusable rocket landing so

I m not saying the thesis is broken and spaceX still has a decade head start with starlink generating real recurring revenue and a lock on most commercial and government launch contracts.

but what shifted is my confidence in competition is far away as a pillar of the case, china's test is harder to dismiss than japan's coz state funding, no profit motive, genuine political will compress timelines aggressively. If China is landing rockets in 2026, where are they in 2030?

The stock is at $145 today down 36% from the $225 peak,below the first trade price of $150. Morningstar has a $63 fair value and street high is $800 lol

Lock up expiry starts late july, potentially releasing up to 20% of shares so a lot of uncertainty to sit through before you get any fundamental clarity.

I hve been looking at ways to position around the volatility rather than just hold or sell outright and apparently in europe some platform also just opened up similar access for retail too. altho not saying leverage is the answer here but when conviction is genuinely mixed....

Am I overweighting the japan and china tests ?