2008: "We're heading into a Great Depression." If you kept buying, the S&P returned 400%+ over the next 13 years.
2011: "The US credit rating just got downgraded for the first time in history." Market was up 30%+ within two years.
2015: "China is crashing and taking everything down with it." S&P hit net highs within months.
2016: "Brexit will destroy global markets." Then few months later: "Trump winning tank everything." Markets hit all-time highs after both.
2020: "COVID is going to end the economy as we know it." Fastest recovery in market history. If you sold in March 2020, you locked in losses. If you kept buying, 2021 was one of the best years on record.
2022: "Inflation is out of control and the Fed is going to kill growth." Rough year. Then 2023 and 2024 were two of the strongest years in decades.
I'm not saying nothing bad ever happens. I'm saying "this time is different" has been said at every single one of these moments. The lesson I'm trying to take from it is that long-term investing and event opinions are different things. My index money should keep going in whether the headline is inflation, tariffs or whatever else people are panicking about. But I still do have views on those events. I just don't want those views to turn into vague portfolio moves.
The scary moment is almost always the moment people most want to stop buying. Not because it feels comfortable, but because that's usually when the discipline matters most.