I previously valued SpaceX at $1.25 trillion based on adding up the value of its businesses. (And I was generous, using conventional analyst valuations for things like xAI.) I predicted the IPO would pop anyway, and it would end around $1.9 trillion.
Now that it's at $2.5T I asked myself, was I wrong? Or is this one of the "market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" situations?
So I revisited my valuation, and basically, [I stand by $1.25T](https://futuresearch.ai/spacex-ipo-valuation/). I don't see anything in the last month that makes me think it's fundamentally worth much more, including the Cursor acquisition. Starlink Consumer at $380B, Starlink Enterprise at $147B, Starship at $170B, government contracts at $123B... even being very generous I cannot get these to add up to enough.
Is there a real value investing case for SpaceX? What am I missing, other than the index fund and Elon Musk pop?
