BXBL BS - The captain goes down with the ship. These founders built themselves a lifeboat at $12 and locked us in the hold for 14 months.

BXBL BS - The captain goes down with the ship. These founders built themselves a lifeboat at $12 and locked us in the hold for 14 months.

TL;DR: Boxabl spent five years telling 50,000 retail investors it would go public. Then it picked a SPAC over a real IPO and got itself "valued" at $3.5 billion with no third-party fairness opinion, something its own S-4 admits, even though the private secondary market implied roughly $1.90 a share post-merger against the $10 deal mark. The founders negotiated a lockup that releases early at $12 and unlocks fully at $20. Retail got locked into non-listed preferred for 14 months. The insiders built themselves an exit. We got a cage. A law firm is already investigating, and every fact here comes from their own filings. SEC Document identifier 1816937.

Boxabl investors, read this before you defend the merger. We funded this company, over 50,000 of us, and we deserve straight answers about what just happened to our money.

For five years the pitch was one line: we intend to go public. We believed it, we waited, and we held. Then, when the moment came, they chose a SPAC instead of a real IPO. That choice matters more than it sounds, because a SPAC has no underwriter doing genuine diligence on the price. So the deal simply got "valued" at $3.5 billion, at $10 a share, and no independent third party ever signed off on that number. Their own S-4 admits no fairness opinion was obtained.

Here is the problem with that number. On a post-merger basis, the private secondary market implied roughly $1.90 a share, about five times less than the $10 the deal was marked at. A real IPO would have forced a real price through real buyers. The SPAC let them pick one instead.

Then look at who can actually sell, and when. The founders negotiated a lockup that releases half their shares early if the stock holds $12, and unlocks completely if it touches $20. Retail, meanwhile, got converted into non-listed preferred stock, locked for 14 months and then released in a slow monthly drip. The people who took our money built themselves an exit. We got a cage. And it shows in the cash: 82.7% of the SPAC investors redeemed before the deal closed, leaving only $14 million in the trust. The informed money walked. We couldn't.

Here is what likely happens next, and why.

In the first 30 days, expect a pop. Only about 1.4 million public shares trade at the open and retail is locked out, so thin float can lift the price fast. A green first day isn't value, it's scarcity, and it's the most dangerous moment for a new buyer. The number on the screen isn't backed by $3.5 billion of value. It's backed by $14 million in the trust and a shareholder base that legally can't sell.

Through the next 30 to 90 days, watch for a push toward $12, and understand why that exact number. The insider lockup releases 50% of their shares early if the stock holds $12 for 20 of 30 trading days, and unlocks entirely if it ever touches $20 intraday. So the people who set the $3.5 billion price are structurally rewarded for one thing: getting the stock to $12 and keeping it there long enough to print. Whether through promotion, news flow, or just riding the thin float, $12 is the level that pays them. If it gets there, the headline writes itself, "we went public and ran to twelve," while the reality underneath is that the run exists to trigger their exit, not yours.

After 90 days, the pressure flips. Once insiders can sell, the most informed sellers, the ones who priced the deal, start feeding stock into the same thin market that floated it up. Now the gap that was hidden at open starts to show. A deal marked at $10 a share, backed by $14 million in the trust, does not survive contact with real selling.

Around month 14, retail unlocks last. Our preferred finally begins converting, 20% a month, and we sell into a market the insiders have already worked. First in, last out. That is the structure they built.

The call, on the record: up first, down second. A pop on thin float, a push to $12 where insiders get their release, then a slide as informed money exits into a market worth $14 million, not $3.5 billion, with retail unlocking into the back half. Insiders out near the top, retail out near the bottom. We're not posting a price. We're pointing at the structure. Watch it happen, and remember who said it first.

None of this is fear-mongering. Every line above comes from their own filings, document SEC document identifier 1816937, and a law firm has already announced an investigation into this merger. If you're a long-term holder, save your subscription documents and your offering circulars. We are organizing, we are documenting, and we are not letting this go quietly.

FWIW - I am a long term holder with “$150,000” of shares and am probably about to get absolutely hosed so the founders can take their second payday on their investors.