I went through the AVGO transcript line by line. Here's what I actually found.
AVGO dropped 15% this week on an earnings "miss." I want to walk through what the transcript actually says because the market reaction and the business reality are completely disconnected.
Hock Tan confirmed orders are visible to 2028 right now. Not 2026. Not 2027. 2028. A 1 gigawatt XPU plus networking order has already been received. OpenAI goes into production on custom silicon late 2026. META's custom AI program ramps H2 2027. Management said on the call: **"demand for networking is simply insatiable."**
The stock dropped because the $100B FY2027 AI revenue guide wasn't raised. That's it. The business beat on every metric. Revenue up 48% YoY. AI semiconductor revenue up 143% YoY. Operating margin hit 67%.
A few things I'm watching that nobody's talking about:
Google multi-sources its silicon. They don't sole-source to avoid getting bottlenecked. Mediatek is the primary beneficiary on that program, possibly MRVL. This means the AI networking TAM doesn't consolidate to one winner. AVGO wins, MRVL wins, Mediatek wins. The pie grows faster than any single company can eat it.
Jensen Huang said this week: "the connectivity side, the AI networking side of the business has very rich margins." He called MRVL a potential trillion dollar company around networking and interconnects. That's not hype, that's the CEO of NVDA describing the supply chain he depends on.
The Anthropic RSI report dropped this week too. Claude is now authoring over 80% of Anthropic's own codebase. Task length autonomy has been doubling every four months. They're guiding toward weeks-long autonomous tasks by 2027. Every benchmark improvement means more compute, more HBM, more switching fabric, more storage. The demand curve isn't linear.
MU is on a similar trajectory. They're moving tier 1 clients to multi-year contracts with fixed pricing and volume commitments at a moment when they can only supply 50 to 66% of demand. Bears read that as a peak-cycle tell. I read it as a company locking in customers who are terrified of being supply-constrained during the most critical infrastructure buildout in a generation. June 24 earnings are the real signal.