Oracle's 5-year CDS jumped to \~139 bps recently. Not a disaster, but it's a reminder that the bond market isn't fully buying the AI growth story.
Microsoft has paused some data center leases and canceled projects. When hyperscalers start tapping the brakes, it's worth paying attention.
VCs poured $270B into AI in 2025, but deal count fell to its lowest level since 2020. More money, fewer companies. That's concentration, not broad ecosystem growth.
What worries me most is the circular nature of the AI economy:
• Cloud providers buy NVIDIA GPUs and report AI growth
• AI startups rent those GPUs using VC money and report ARR
• VCs raise larger funds and report AUM growth
Everyone's showing growth. The question is: who's paying sustainable prices at the end of the chain?
Meanwhile, private credit exposure to SaaS and AI keeps growing, data center projects are being delayed, and power constraints are becoming real bottlenecks.
NVIDIA is still printing cash, but at current valuations the market seems to be pricing in near-perfect execution. Any slowdown in spending could matter.
Maybe AI lives up to the hype. Maybe it doesn't. I just think the risks aren't getting as much attention as the upside.
Not financial advice. Just sharing my thoughts.