BOXABL preferred investors: are people understanding what this SPAC structure actually means?

*NOTE: I'm reposting to this community since the Founder of BOXABL removed my post in that sub.*

I’m a crowdfunding preferred shareholder \[of BOXABL, BOXB / FGMC\] trying to sanity-check the economics here.

Let’s use a simplified example:

* Assume you own **10,000 BOXABL preferred shares**
* Assume internal economic value = **$0.80/share**
* Total economic value = **$8,000**
* Merger reference price = **$10/share**

So your public-equivalent math becomes:

**10,000 × $0.80 = $8,000**

Then:

**$8,000 ÷ $10 = 800 BXBL shares**

Not 10,000 public shares.

That part is actually fine. That’s just recapitalization math.

The insane part is the liquidity structure.

Per BOXABL’s SEC FAQ:

* Preferred stock is **NOT listed**
* Preferred stock is **NOT tradable**
* \~14 months after closing, **20% converts to common**
* Then another **20% per month**
* Only converted common becomes tradable

Assume merger closes mid-June 2026.

That means:

|Date|Tradable Shares|Locked Shares|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Jun 2026|0|800|
|Aug 2027|160|640|
|Sep 2027|320|480|
|Oct 2027|480|320|
|Nov 2027|640|160|
|Dec 2027|800|0|

So let’s model outcomes.

# Scenario 1: Price stays flat at $10

Best-case stable market fantasy.

|Unlock Date|Shares|Price|Value|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Aug 2027|160|$10|$1,600|
|Sep 2027|160|$10|$1,600|
|Oct 2027|160|$10|$1,600|
|Nov 2027|160|$10|$1,600|
|Dec 2027|160|$10|$1,600|

Total = **$8,000**

You break even.

# Scenario 2: Price grows 10% annually

Optimistic growth case.

June 2026 → Aug 2027 ≈ 14 months

$10 × (1.10)\^(14/12) ≈ **$11.18**

Approx unlock values:

|Date|Price|Shares|Value|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Aug 2027|$11.18|160|$1,789|
|Sep 2027|$11.27|160|$1,803|
|Oct 2027|$11.36|160|$1,818|
|Nov 2027|$11.45|160|$1,832|
|Dec 2027|$11.54|160|$1,846|

Total ≈ **$9,088**

Gain ≈ **13.6%**

Over 18 months.

Not exactly moonshot.

# Scenario 3: Average de-SPAC performance

Historically, many de-SPACs perform terribly after merger (median long-term returns have generally been poor vs IPO benchmarks; exact averages vary by cohort/provider).

Let’s use a simplified ugly-but-plausible path:

* Close at $10
* Month 6 = $6
* Month 12 = $3
* Month 14 = $2
* Month 18 = $1.50

Then:

|Unlock Date|Price|Shares|Value|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Aug 2027|$2.00|160|$320|
|Sep 2027|$1.90|160|$304|
|Oct 2027|$1.75|160|$280|
|Nov 2027|$1.60|160|$256|
|Dec 2027|$1.50|160|$240|

Total = **$1,400**

From original $8,000 economic value.

**-82.5%**

# The actual concern

This isn’t about whether BOXABL succeeds as a company.

It’s about structure.

Public FGMC/BXBL investors get immediate liquidity.

Crowdfunding preferred investors absorb:

* recap dilution
* no liquidity at closing
* delayed conversion
* market risk while trapped

So the question:

**Is this actually shareholder-friendly, or are retail preferred investors effectively exit liquidity with a time bomb attached?**