Earlier today I was discussing with a friend how oil could react if a U.S.–Iran ceasefire or broader deal started looking more likely.
A few hours later, reports emerged suggesting that a tentative agreement may be under discussion, pending approval from President Trump. As the news spread, oil prices began to react.
My initial thought was that easing tensions could reduce some of the geopolitical risk premium that's been supporting oil prices. If that view gains traction, we could see further downside pressure on crude.
What's interesting to me is how quickly markets start pricing in expectations before anything is officially confirmed. took a scalp long yesterday though
With the weekend here and more headlines likely to emerge, I'm curious how others are thinking about oil and im hoping for a confirmation so i can go in short,. Do you believe the market has already priced in most of the potential impact, or is there still room for a larger move if a deal is confirmed?