Rereading my investment plan from Sept 2024 (which I failed to hold to) and sick to my stomach at what it cost me.

In Sept 2024 I wrote an investment plan, which included a page of musings on the philosophy of investment, followed by a couple paragraphs on what I planned to invest \~$4,500 in on a bi-monthly basis once I started making some serious income.

Since then, I broke from that plan a few months in, and even decided to inverse some of my initial theses, because they did not play out as expected in the first few months. This cost me dearly.

The first page is good. It’s not original by any means, and most of us know it all, but it’s well stated. The thing that was totally gut wrenching to me, was reading my picks (which again, I abandoned due to a lack of patience). My first, and highest conviction pick was Micron (MU) which was below $100 at the time. MU had a rough few months right after I bought it, so I sold what was effectively the most insane bottom of all time. Then, on the way up, I shorted memory (biggest mistake of my life!)

Here was what I wrote in Sept. 2024 in my private notes (skip to bottom for my MU analysis):

**Theory and Thesis**
Successful investment compounds wealth over time, requires discipline, and is accompanied by a long-term, diversified strategy. Wealth doesn’t accumulate overnight, and short-term thinking or impulsive reactions often lead to failure. True value is created by companies and individuals who build useful solutions to real-world problems, and spend years doing it. My focus is on investing in companies that build or create products or services that are special, essential, or otherwise valuable – and an investment means that I place trust in their abilities as a company to invest and reinvest in themselves on my behalf for years to come.

I seek out companies that meet specific criteria: those in sectors with high or growing demand, companies that are undervalued within their market, those with a clear competitive advantage, and those supported by positive growth indicators or strong historical performance. These investments are not about picking stocks for short-term gains, but about building generational wealth that at least outpaces inflation and at best outperforms the market.

Ultimately, investing is a long-term commitment, with passive growth happening in the background. Clear methodology, strict discipline, and regular reviews guide my decisions, ensuring that each investment contributes to a solid financial foundation for the future.

Compounding over time.
Short term thinking and a lack of discipline cause failure.
Value is created by people who build things and/or solve problems. You invest in companies, assets, and people, you don’t pick stocks.
Must beat inflation.
Easiest way to make money is to earn more money. Investments are passive and happen in the background. They are not a source of income, but building generational wealth.
Clear methodology and constraints are built to.

**Methodology and Constraints**
AT LEAST \~$4-5k will be invested every 2 months. This is approximately a \~1x match of all necessary and normal expenses (e.g. rent, food, transport) on a bimonthly basis.

Surplus contributions (such as work bonuses) may be made irregularly, but must follow the same requirements and procedures as regularly scheduled contributions.

The rules for each investment are as follow:

Each investment will be made in 1-2 researched company(ies), or an index/ETF.

Each investment will be made with the intention of holding for at least 2 years.

Each investment will be explained in no more than 200 words.

Each investment will be revisited and reviewed on a bimonthly basis.

No three consecutive investments shall be in the same sector.

Companies must have at least $2bn in market cap at the time of purchase.

Derivatives *may not* be purchased with regular contributions or exceed 5% of the entire portfolio at any time, but *may* be purchased with surplus contributions when a written justification is attached.

**Philosophy and Motivation**
You are what you pay attention to. Become obsessed with things that matter: hard work, intellectual curiosity, honest dealing, good habits, and compounding growth.

Every dollar you invest is a dollar you worked to create. You solved a problem, built something useful, and/or dedicated precious time to earn that dollar. You *could* spend it on things you enjoy today, like travel, food, or loved ones, but instead you’re choosing to save and invest it – so make sure you save and invest it wisely.

Creating generational wealth enables you to maximize opportunity for yourself and others. Good friends, husbands, and fathers are those who maximize opportunity for themselves and others. *Ergo* prudent investment enables you to be a good person.

The fool admires complexity. The genius masters simplicity.

**Investment Log and Schedule**
*1 October 2024*
Micron Technology Inc., NASDAQ: MU
$4,499.75 Invested, 45 Shares at $99.99

Memory is Undervalued: The increasing demand for memory and storage in AI, cloud compute, etc. gives Micron an advantage in the semiconductor industry, since in my view, memory is an undervalued component of demand for future products in this segment. Investment in datacenters and AI is currently heavily focused on compute and processing, but the use of personalized AI models with huge context windows and “memories” will require memory infrastructure and DRAM/NAND resources that Micron provides as well.

Legislative Support and Minimizing Geopolitical Risk: Micron benefits from U.S. government initiatives such as the CHIPS Act, which aims to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, creating favorable conditions for growth and expansion in the U.S. market. There has also been direct assistance from the government with respect to permitting reform via executive orders, and other forms of support from administrative agencies. Unlike some competitors, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), Micron faces less risk from geopolitical tensions in Asia – which is a small but plausible risk.

Financials and Valuation: Micron is estimated to be trading at a \~10.3% discount to its estimated fair value at the time this purchase, offering a strong entry point. Recent earnings reports show strong growth, with revenue for Q4 2024 reaching $7.75 billion and significant net income, reversing a trend of underperformance. Furthermore, Micron has strong earnings per share, is investing in more manufacturing plants, put forth optimistic revenue forecasts for 2025.