AI capex just got revised up $225B in 6 months and earnings are actually following it, this is not how bubbles work and it's messing with my thesis.

So hyperscaler capex started 2026 at $515B and it's now $740B mid-year, with 2027 already pencilled in at $889B that's 2.7% of US GDP going into AI infrastructure, in 2019 this number was 0.3%.

The part that's really breaking my bubble thesis is that EPS is actually moving with it. tech earnings estimates for 2027 are up nearly 20% YTD and in 1999 profits lagged the spending by a mile that's not what's happening here, at least not yet, also nobody seems to be talking about the equity returns in chip-manufacturing markets this year which are honestly jaw dropping. the capex doesn't stay in silicon valley it flows directly to wherever the hardware gets built and you can see it clearly in the numbers

The one signal i'm watching is semiconductor pricing it's been deflationary for decades and is now spiking, if oversupply hits that's your canary.

I've been slowly adding EM exposure but second guessing it every week maybe i'm overthinking it but when something moves this fast and earnings are keeping up, do you trust it or does that make it scarier?