I simultaneously understand that the hyperscalers have room to grow, and that the world economy is not stable, how does anyone keep their sanity in this environment?
I simultaneously understand that all of the infrastructure going into AI has a lot of room for growth and will most likely suck up pretty much all industries while also increasing productivity for anything with a moat against the hyperscalers
At the same time
I can't deny the following:
a lot of people will lose their jobs very quickly (much more quickly than previous industrial revolutions)
US is no longer looked at like a stable partner/investment due to its governmental instability
wars are breaking out, and will likely only grow as people recognize the US as a paper tiger
massive wealth inequality leading to higher taxes and government instabilities
and leading off of that wealth inequality, at least for 2026-2028, I can't imagine we'll have a one party government anymore, which means there will be a lot more fear of less money printing (albeit, once 2028 hits, we may go back to single party again, and a lot higher likelihood of money printing to deal with any stock declines)
rising rates
global bond market, while most likely to be bailed out if anything goes awry, still volatile
trade war / supply chain / energy volatility
while AI will lead to productivity boom, the current incarnation is being utilized in the current corporate american environment in a perverted way to maintain the corporate hierarchy status quo rather than actually change it from the ground up, and that only newer startup companies are thinking in a truly "agentic" sense from the ground up. Thus, these "perverted" incumbents are more or less doomed to be eaten alive by non-public companies. Truly creative destruction in effect. Adobe being a prime example.
aside from spacex (ridiculous valuation) and openai, none of these startups are going public
I don't see how the "covid money printing" money didn't already work itself into the current market, so I don't see how there's some residual flow from that, but maybe I'm wrong. If I'm not mistaken people/companies took out the loans, and are still paying off the loans while already having dumped the money in the market
So, it genuinely feels like you'd have to be crazy to continue to put money into the market at this point. How the hell are ya'll keeping your sanity? Where's the money coming from that just is the firehose that will push stock market much higher despite all these adverse conditions?
To be clear, I'm not interested in hearing the response of the "set it and forget it" 401k squad. I know you exist, you don't have to comment to remind me lol. I'm not denying the value of your strategy by making this disclaimer btw, it's just not who I'm looking for wisdom from here.
I feel like for the first time in my life, the alternative of TIPs or something like that actually makes sense. However, there must be some diversification angle I'm missing here.