UHAL is worth watching into its May 27 fiscal Q4 release because the current debate is not really about one quarter. Its about whether the company is facing permanent business deterioration or a fleet cost cycle that may be nearing the point where the damage stops getting worse. Q3 fiscal 2026 was ugly. UHAL reported a $37M net loss. Management said earnings were being pulled down by fleet depreciation & poor resale results, tied partly to expensive vans & pickups acquired in model years 2023 & 2024. The important line from management was that they expect this issue to bottom this calendar year. Thats the central question for May 27 after close & the May 28 call. If fleet depreciation, resale losses, maintenance costs & liability costs are still worsening, the stock stays wounded. If those pressures begin flattening, the earnings screen can change quickly because the current market view is built around ugly reported results. The new 29 ft Easy Mover truck is not the whole bull case, but it is an interesting operating detail. UHAL lists the truck at 25,999 lb max GVWR with 2,057 cu ft of cargo area. FMCSA’s Class B CDL threshold starts at 26,001 lb for a single vehicle. That means UHAL is pushing larger move capacity while staying under the CDL wall for the normal consumer renter. The business logic is bigger than the truck rental alone. A larger move can attach mileage, supplies, coverage, towing, storage, moving labor, U Box demand, or destination storage. UHAL is effectively a household motion network, not just a truck rental company. The macro setup is mixed but still relevant. Existing home sales remain weak, mortgage rates are still high, affordability is still tight, & inventory is rising. Thats not a clean housing recovery. Its stressed churn. UHAL can still benefit from churn caused by lease resets, job relocation, family changes, college moves, military moves, downsizing, rental turnover & ownership remaining frozen. Storage is the second part of the story, but it has to be treated carefully. Self storage revenue grew in Q3, but occupancy softened. The storage asset base is real, but the company still has to prove it can fill the space & earn acceptable returns on the buildout. The same caution applies to U Box: volume growth is useful, but profitability matters more than activity. The bullish case is not sudden repair. The bullish case is that the worst looking part of the fleet cycle may be closer to bottoming while the company still controls a large moving, storage & household transition network. The risk case is that depreciation, resale losses, storage occupancy, capex & debt pressure keep eating the repair before it reaches shareholders. I would watch the May 28 call for four things: whether management gives evidence that fleet resale values are stabilizing, whether fleet capex is coming down with discipline, whether storage occupancy is repairing, & whether the Easy Mover rollout is expected to become meaningful utilization rather than a press cycle. Sources: UHAL Q4 schedule: https://investors.uhaul.com/news/news-details/2026/U-Haul-Holding-Company-Schedules-Fourth-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-End-2026-Financial-Results-Release-and-Investor-Webcast/default.aspx
UHAL Q3 FY2026 release: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260204138420/en/U-Haul-Holding-Company-Reports-Third-Quarter-Fiscal-2026-Financial-Results
UHAL 29 ft truck specs: https://www.uhaul.com/Truck-Rentals/29ft-Moving-Truck/
FMCSA CDL threshold: https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/registration/commercial-drivers-license/drivers
NAR April existing home sales: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-0-2-increase-in-april
Freddie Mac mortgage rates: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms