**openai missed their numbers + the AI trade is shaky**
wsj reported openai's revenue and user growth came in below their own targets, anthropic and gemini apparently eating their lunch since late 2025. their cfo flagged concerns about funding future compute deals. nasdaq dropped 1.1%, softbank tanked 10%, every chip stock got hit.
this is the first real crack in the AI capex story thats been driving the entire rally. semis up 33% in 3 months on that narrative alone. msft, google, amazon, meta all report tonight.
**iran situation getting worse (?)**
iran offered to reopen hormuz if nuclear talks get deferred, trump said no, iran re-closed it again. march cpi already spiked to 3.3% almost entirely on energy. if hormuz stays closed the may 12 cpi print could come in above 3.5%, thats probably the most dangerous data point in the next 45 days. consumer confidence at a 48 year low, inflation expectations jumped from 3.8% to 4.8% in one month
**goodbye powell** **+ his replacement just killed rate cuts**
todays fomc is likely powell's last. warsh cleared his final hurdle over the weekend, senate banking committee voting on confirmation this morning. at his hearing he said "the president never asked me to commit to rate cuts" and markets believed him. fedwatch shows basically zero chance of more than one cut all year. warsh also wants to ditch forward guidance, stop regular press conferences, revert to strict 2% targeting.
**(mid term) buybacks about to come back**
$1.2T in share repurchase authorizations for 2026, biggest on record. most companies in blackout right now because of earnings season but windows start reopening mid-may. credit spreads are near 25 year tights which means the bond market isn't worried about systemic risk at all. so even if we get a pullback its probably 3-5%, not 10%+. the largest buyer in the market is about to flip back on