What stands out to me right now is that markets are still clearly prioritizing AI over geopolitics.
On one side, global investors are still rewarding AI-linked equities, semiconductors, and capex-sensitive tech names. Reuters described the current setup pretty well: despite ongoing Middle East tensions, equity markets are still being pushed higher by AI optimism and expectations around tech spending.
On the other side, the macro backdrop is not exactly clean. Energy risk is still there, the Fed is still in play, and geopolitical uncertainty has not actually gone away. That’s why I don’t think the real question is whether AI is a valid theme. It obviously still is. The real question is how long that theme can keep dominating asset pricing if the macro pressure underneath it starts to build again.
My view is that this week is less about making a huge new call and more about watching whether big tech earnings and capex commentary are strong enough to justify the market continuing to ignore everything else.