One macro question worth sitting with before tomorrow's Fed press conference

The IEA described the current energy situation as the largest energy supply shock on record.

The Fed meets today and tomorrow.

The question I've been sitting with is a straightforward one: what does "appropriate" monetary policy look like when the inflation problem is primarily a supply problem rather than a demand problem?

Rate hikes slow demand. They don't fix closed shipping lanes or damaged LNG facilities. So even if the Fed wanted to fight this inflation with its usual tools, the mechanism doesn't really apply.

But if the Fed stays too accommodative for too long and energy prices feed through into wages and services pricing ， second round effects ，then they end up behind the curve on a different kind of inflation problem.

Tomorrow Powell has to navigate this publicly.

Deutsche Bank's analysts said they expect him to acknowledge that the longer oil prices remain elevated, the more persistent inflation pressure becomes. That framing even without a rate hike changes how markets price the rate path for the rest of 2026 and into 2027.

For longer-term investors, the question isn't just what the Fed does at this meeting. It's what the oil shock means for the path of real returns across asset classes over the next 12-18 months.

Curious how others are thinking about this.