What if the AI panic is creating the actual trade? $APO $TPG $OWL $BX

Everyone is obsessing over the obvious AI trade: semis, data centres, software names, and anything with “AI” slapped into the investor deck.

But I heard a pretty interesting take on Prof G Markets that the better trade might be the stuff getting unfairly punished by AI panic and private credit fear.

The argument was basically this:

A lot of the market is trading off narrative right now, not fundamentals. Some random AI doom narrative hits the internet, people start extrapolating “AI kills everything”, and suddenly whole sectors get repriced because investors panic first and read financial statements later.

The names that stood out were alternative asset/private credit managers:

$APO

$TPG

$OWL

$BX

The thesis is that the market is overpricing the risk around private credit and underpricing the actual business quality of these companies.

Why?

Because these companies are not just making one-off trading revenue. They are growing AUM, collecting recurring management fees, raising huge funds, and sitting in a part of the market where traditional banks have pulled back. If private credit does not implode the way bears keep predicting, these names could be trading too cheap.

A few points from the episode:

$APO is apparently trading around 14x earnings while still growing earnings and AUM at double-digit rates.

$TPG was described as trading well below fair value compared with peers, despite strong fundraising and growing fee-related earnings.

$OWL has been beaten down but still offers a chunky dividend yield.

$BX was included as part of the broader “alt manager basket” that could outperform if the private credit panic is overdone.

The bigger point was this: investors spend too much time asking “what could go wrong?” and not enough time asking “what could go right?”

If the market is wrong about private credit risk, and these firms keep growing fee revenue, then this could be one of those boring institutional money trades that outperforms while retail keeps chasing whatever AI ticker is trending.

Bear case is obvious: private credit blows up, defaults rise, liquidity gets ugly, and these names deserve the discount.

Bull case: the fear is already priced in, fundraising stays strong, fee-related earnings keep compounding, and the market eventually realises these companies are not just shadow-bank time bombs.

I do not think this is a quick meme squeeze trade. It feels more like a “Wall Street is scared of the wrong thing” setup.

Curious what people think. Is private credit actually the hidden landmine everyone says it is, or are $APO / $TPG / $OWL / $BX being discounted because investors are panicking over the wrong narrative?