Posts  / #POST-225524
REDDIT

Is anyone else realizing that a 4% SWR is mathematically broken for European inflation right now?

H
Apr 24, 2026 · 22:32

Most FIRE spreadsheets online assume US inflation, USD assets, and a static target.

I ran the numbers for a 30-year retirement factoring in the real debasement of the Euro (and CHF), and a static $1M/€1M target is actually deeply underfunded by year 15. I couldn't find a tool that dynamically adjusted the FIRE target line *during* the decumulation phase based on local inflation.

I ended up coding a visual simulator that plots a 'moving inflation target' vs portfolio growth (including a small BTC hedge) to fix my own math. The results on the chart were a huge wake-up call for my timeline.

How are you guys adjusting your withdrawal rates for the Eurozone right now? Are you dropping to 3% to be safe?

***(If anyone wants to run their own numbers on the visual simulator I built, let me know in the comments and I'll drop the link).***