Been tracking institutional options flow on NBIS (Nebius) this week and wanted to share what I'm seeing.
\*\*The flow:\*\*
NBIS got flagged on April 10 with heavy call accumulation at the $140 strike, April 17 expiry. These weren't small retail orders. Large block prints, above-ask purchases, strategic positioning ahead of what turned out to be a massive catalyst week. The institutional read was clear before the move happened.
\*\*Why it matters:\*\*
Nebius just signed a $27B AI infrastructure deal with Meta ($12B in dedicated capacity starting 2027), received a $2B strategic NVIDIA investment, and completed a $4.34B convertible debt raise that fully funds 2026 capex. Smart money was accumulating calls before the full re-rating played out.
\*\*Technical setup:\*\*
Price is at $145.19, pressing against the 52-week high at $149.82. Trading 39% above the 50-day MA ($104) and 153% above the 200-day MA ($57.20). The spread is extended, but the golden cross has been intact since January. RSI(14) at 64.5, elevated but not overbought. MACD at +2.58 with expanding histogram. Volume on April 11 was 25.78M against a 15.49M average, 1.66x normal on an up day.
\*\*Key levels:\*\*
Resistance: $149.82 (52-week high). Above that, $163 is consensus target. Clean breakout above $150 on volume opens a measured move toward $170-175 based on the March consolidation range.
Support: $131.72 (intraday low, first demand zone). $120 is the March breakout level. 50-day MA at $104 is the line in the sand for trend integrity.
\*\*My position:\*\*
Long calls. Entry at $5.22, currently at $9.65. Hard stop at 50% of premium. If the thesis breaks below $131 on a daily close, I'm out.
\*\*The broader thesis:\*\*
This isn't just a single ticker play. The hyperscaler AI buildout is accelerating, tariff exemptions are protecting the semiconductor supply chain, and independent GPU cloud providers like Nebius are positioned as alternatives to the hyperscalers themselves. Institutions are pricing in revenue visibility that most retail hasn't modeled yet.