Big bank earnings are coming up and prediction markets look pretty bullish on the group

Been digging through the upcoming bank and financial earnings markets and the overall setup looks pretty solid, but not in a uniform way.

A few names are getting priced pretty confidently:

* **BlackRock ($BLK)** at **88.5%** to beat
* **JPMorgan ($JPM)** at **83.5%**
* **Wells Fargo ($WFC)** at **83.0%**
* **Morgan Stanley ($MS)** at **81.0%**

So the market definitely seems to like a lot of the big financial names going into earnings.

But it is not just blindly bullish across the board.

**Goldman Sachs ($GS)** is still sitting at **72.5%** to beat, which is decent, but that number dropped **18.5 points in a day**. That is a pretty real pullback in confidence. And then you have **CarMax ($KMX)** all the way down at **36.5%**, which is basically the market saying it really does not like that setup.

That is kind of the interesting part to me. Financials as a group look strong, but the market is clearly being selective. The stronger names have both high beat odds and better liquidity behind them, which makes the signal feel more legit. Lower down the board, it gets shakier fast.

My read is basically:
the market still likes big financials into earnings, but it is not giving everyone the same benefit of the doubt.

Curious what people think:

* Are banks one of the cleaner earnings trades this season?
* Is the Goldman drop something real or just noise?