Everyone's watching the Strait of Hormuz. That's not the real issue.
MST Financial's Saul Kavonic: even if the Strait reopened tomorrow, there's barely anything left to ship. You can reopen a shipping lane in days. Rebuilding energy infrastructure takes 3 to 5 years.
The strikes physically erased nearly a fifth of the world's gas supply. Not delayed. Gone.
IEA's Fatih Birol confirmed the 1970s shocks knocked 5 million barrels per day offline each. Current disruption: 11 million barrels per day. More than both 1970s shocks combined, and the war is still ongoing.
Trump announced a 5-day pause on strikes. Markets bounced. A pause doesn't rebuild a refinery. The infrastructure deficit doesn't care about the diplomatic calendar.
The repricing hasn't happened yet. When institutions figure out this is a multi-year supply hole with zero spare capacity buffer, oil goes up with or without a ceasefire.