One thing the market still seems to underestimate is how different copper is from a normal cyclical trade. Price can move quickly. Supply response usually cannot.
That is obvious in the current setup. Reuters reported that Grasberg is not expected to return to pre-accident production levels until 2027. El Teniente is expected to run at reduced output for about five years. Kamoa-Kakula cut 2026 guidance to 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes as recovery continued. Those are long timelines for some of the biggest assets in the system.
And when the industry does try to answer that with new projects, the timelines are still slow. Reuters reported that Freeport has started the environmental permitting process for a $7.5 billion expansion of El Abra in Chile, and the country’s mining minister said the permit process alone is expected to take around three years, with operations not expected until the next decade. That is the kind of timeline mismatch the market keeps running into: copper tightness shows up now, but meaningful replacement supply often arrives years later.
That is also why majors keep talking about policy support, permitting pathways, and jurisdictions, not just geology. Reuters reported that BHP’s new CEO highlighted opportunities in the U.S., Chile, and Argentina, and pointed to U.S. support for Resolution Copper as a sign of where large-scale copper development may still have political backing. In other words, the copper story is no longer just about who has resources. It is also about who can realistically move a project through the system.
J.P. Morgan cut its 2026 supply-growth forecast from 4.0% to 1.4% and expects roughly a 330 kt refined copper deficit. That is the market-level result of this timing problem. Prices can react in months. Supply often needs years.