Brace yourselves: trillions in market value could be wiped out overnight if Hormuz escalates

The idea that Donald Trump could issue an ultimatum to Iran – “open the Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours or we’ll cut off your energy supply” – sounds like a script from a bad cowboy movie, not serious foreign policy. The problem is that Iran is not an extra in this story, but a country that has been trained for decades to survive under pressure and sanctions.

The assumption that Tehran will say “okay, here are the keys” to such an ultimatum is not only naive, but almost comically wrong. A more realistic response would be: closing the strait, attacking infrastructure in the Gulf and elegantly pushing oil prices into orbit. In other words, if anyone thinks this would be a quick victory – that is a dangerous illusion.

And then comes the economic part of the story. Markets do not like such “brilliant moves”. The combination of energy shock, panic and geopolitical chaos is not a recipe for prosperity, but for a stock market crash, inflation and a very likely recession. But hey, maybe it can be explained as “short-term volatility”, while fuel and food become luxuries.

Meanwhile, China and Russia can only sit back, watch and take notes. Nothing strengthens their positions like moves that destabilize the global order and push countries toward alternative alliances and markets. If the goal was to speed up a multipolar world - well done, mission accomplished.

And as for the American economy, it is already on rather shaky ground - huge debt, financialization and markets that often resemble a bubble more than a reflection of real production. Throw in a global energy shock? It's not a strategy, it's a test of the system's endurance.

All in all, this move doesn't seem like a show of strength, but a rather risky gamble with global consequences - with an air of confidence that would be impressive if it weren't so dangerous.

If such an attack were to occur, it is realistic to expect a dramatic decline in stock markets – not as a short-term correction, but as a serious shock that wipes out values overnight. In such a scenario, capital flees to safer assets, volatility explodes, and investor confidence evaporates faster than politicians can hold a press conference.

Of course, such a development becomes even more likely when key decisions are made by actors like Donald Trump in the US and the hard-line government in Israel, where short-term interests, a show of force, and domestic political points all too often seem to prevail over long-term stability and a rational assessment of the consequences. In such an environment, markets are not only under pressure – they become collateral victims of political adventurism.