The copper market keeps getting framed as a demand story. EVs, grids, data centers, electrification. All true. But that is only half of it.
The other half is uglier: the deficit is increasingly being forced into existence by mine failures and disrupted output. Grasberg’s September 2025 mudslide pushed recovery back toward 2027, with Reuters citing analyst estimates of roughly 591,000 tonnes of lost copper output between late 2025 and the end of 2026. At the same time, Ivanhoe cut Kamoa-Kakula’s 2026 guidance to 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes, and Codelco said El Teniente is likely to stay at depressed production levels for about five years.
That is what makes this copper setup different. The market is not only dealing with stronger long-term demand. It is also dealing with the failure of some of the supply it was counting on. J.P. Morgan said its 2026 copper supply-growth forecast was cut from 4.0% to 1.4%, helping create an expected \~330 kt refined copper deficit. In other words, the gap is not just being pulled higher by demand. It is being carved out by underperforming supply.
That matters because mine failures are not easy to replace. When very large mines disappoint, the market cannot just flip a switch and fill the gap. New projects take years to permit, fund, build, and ramp. So when multiple mega-mines miss plan at the same time, deficits can become more persistent than the market initially expects.
The takeaway is simple: copper tightness in 2026 is not just a macro demand thesis. It is also a supply-destruction thesis. And that makes future copper sources in stable jurisdictions more strategically important than they looked before
Source: JPmorgan research "Copper prices could soar further amid a tightening market"
Reuters "Production at Codelco's El Teniente mine to remain at lower level next 5 years"