With SpaceX reportedly targeting a June 2026 IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation, Looking into this I’ve found 2 proxies: $SATS (EchoStar) and $XOVR (ERShares Crossover).
The part I can’t wrap my head around is the massive valuation gap between where these two are buying in and the projected IPO price. Am I missing something, or is this a blatant arbitrage play?
The $SATS Math:
EchoStar just closed a spectrum deal where they received $11.1 billion in SpaceX equity. Here’s the kicker, at the time of the deal, that stake was valued at a SpaceX valuation of roughly $400B – $800B.
• If SpaceX hits its $1.75T IPO target, $SATS’s stake is suddenly worth $25B – $30B.
• The Arbitrage: $SATS has a current market cap of only $25B. You are essentially buying the SpaceX stake at cost and getting the entire DISH/Boost Mobile business (which just reported a 64% beat on EBITDA) for free.
The $XOVR Concentration:
This ETF currently holds a SpaceX SPV that makes up nearly 45% of its net assets. They recently revalued their SpaceX stake to $526/share, which implies an $800B valuation.
• At a $1.75T IPO, that’s a 2.2x gain on almost half the fund’s weight.
• Unlike other space ETFs that are bloated with slow-growth defense contractors, $XOVR is essentially a levered bet on SpaceX’s private-to-public transition.
The Question:
If both $SATS and $XOVR acquired their shares at a 50%–70% discount compared to the projected IPO price, why isn't the market pricing this in yet? Is there a hidden "liquidity discount" because these are private shares, or are we looking at a guaranteed "pop" for these tickers the second the S-1 is officially filed?
Are these the most profitable ways to play the IPO, or will the "proxy noise" get ignored once retail can buy the real thing?
TL;DR
Are SATS and XOVR the best pre IPO spacex plays?