Oil from $71 to over $90 in one week after US-Israel strikes and Iranian retaliation – geopolitical shock or the start of a real supply squeeze?

This week, oil made a violent jump: the barrel went from around **$71** to over **$90** (Brent) after US-Israeli operations on several Iranian military sites and Iran's missile retaliation on US bases in the Gulf (Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain).

The market reacted instantly:

* Massive geopolitical risk premium → extreme volatility in just a few hours
* Tankers on hold or rerouted → flows disrupted
* Hormuz still under high tension (20-21% of global oil passes through there) → any real threat = panic on supply

This kind of geopolitical shock creates very rapid moves on oil CFDs (WTI, Brent):

* Brutal upside when fear dominates (like right now)
* Equally violent reversal if de-escalation or alternative flows resume
* Volatility that attracts directional traders and those playing squeezes

Personally, I see this as **very strong short-term bullish** (supply fear dominates everything for now), but **cautious long-term**: geopolitical peaks often calm down when alternative routes adjust or demand weakens. I opened a tactical long position on Bit get Metal CFDs (XTIUSD & XBRUSD perpetuals) to take advantage of the momentum. But in my opinion, keeping it as a long-term position could be very risky.

And you?

* Do you think this is just a temporary overreaction or the beginning of a real squeeze toward $100-120?