I came across this Argus news release below and was pretty surprised to see how expensive jet fuel has become. Most of the headline news I had seen discussed oil hitting $80/bbl which is not too unusual. Seeing jet fuel this expensive was pretty surprising which made me wonder if we are going to see airline bankruptcies like we saw in 2008. If oil prices keep spiking and the jet crack spread continues to widen doesn't it seem like they have to?
It looks like the current trend for US airlines was to go completely unhedged heading into 2026. Even Southwest Airlines which was historically known for their hedging has apparently dropped all of their hedges which was really unfortunate timing for them. American Airlines doesn't have any hedges, United Airlines doesn't have any hedges, and while Delta doesn't have any hedges they at least own a refinery.
The most exposed airline seems likely Jet Blue with the highest debt load and back to back years of net losses. Their stock is down 25% over the last month. Is this a buy the dip opportunity or is it going to be the first one to fall?
[https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2797249-us-gulf-coast-jet-fuel-prices-at-44-month-high](https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2797249-us-gulf-coast-jet-fuel-prices-at-44-month-high)
