The strikes are throwing wrenches into portfolios, including my own. I was already hedging my portfolio a bit as I like to play around with Long VIX for some convex hedging. However, also at times hedge my portfolio more with futures. However, it's always hard to know what to do when. Since the main driver on financial markets is mainly the attacks on Iran I made a quick page that updates information regularly. Started with monitoring the strikes coming out of Iran. Based on the premise that despite defenses being very successful of the states in the Middle East, it also comes at a price. The (counter)attacks of Iran are supposedly much cheaper than the defense. It has the risk of becoming a war of attrition with Iran having very little to loose.
So I made this page (quickly) for a dashboard of some relevant data (in my opinion):
[https://shakesf1.github.io/iran/](https://shakesf1.github.io/iran/)
What it shows are the strikes per hour out of Iran as well as daily totals. We had this Twitter post for instance: [https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2029684061736755392?s=20](https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2029684061736755392?s=20) where this was said: "Commander Admiral Brad Cooper: "If I just look back over the last 24 hours of the operation compared to the where we were to start, ballistic missile attacks have decreased by 90%... Drone attacks have decreased by 83%... we’re now up over 30 ships \[destroyed\]." While my data shows something similar but it stabilized and rates of attacks have increased slightly yesterday. Might be noise... might not be.
Also tracking shipping rates of Dirty Tankers, which are a good indicator of impact on global economy.
Finally, working on monitoring ships around the Strait of Hormuz. Need to build up history to be able to show it but idea is two fold:
\- See whether ships are crossing the straight (large cargo ships and Very Large Crude Carriers)
\- See whether they go East or West
\- Also check ships that are docked.
Effectively every ship equals a daily flow of oil that is missing in the global market when Strait is closed. Ships going through would be immediately relevant.
Made this as the news is not really uniform in its reporting so made this for myself to have uniform view on what is happening there. Probably plenty to argue against but think this has value. Especially when I have sufficient data regarding Strait of Hormuz, as Trump claims he wants to insure ships but words are cheap. It all depends on what actually happens.