I'm staying long LNG after today and here is why the Iran shock actually strengthens my thesis
The Iran escalation pushed Brent briefly above $85 and tanker rerouting around the Strait of Hormuz is real. Most LNG names sold off with the broader market. I added.
DOE data from last month already had US LNG exports at a record 13.2 Bcf/d with capacity utilization at 98%. That is the pricing power story working on its own before any geopolitical premium gets layered on top
What I am actually watching is whether Brent holds above $90-95 long enough to reprice Fed expectations. That is the real threat to the multiple, not a week of $83 crude. A hyperscaler capex cut would hurt this thesis more than anything happening in the Strait right now, so MSFT and GOOG earnings are my next real signal
Anyone else in LNG? Curious how people are separating the noise from the actual thesis here