Nvidia's China revenue is still zero despite Trump's export approval. What that means for the $78B guidance

Most of the post-earnings coverage is focused on the revenue beat and $78B Q1 guidance. What's getting missed: that $78B assumes zero China Data Center revenue.

CFO Colette Kress said explicitly on the call tonight that while H200 chips were approved for sale to China by the US government, Nvidia has not generated any revenue from them and doesn't know whether imports will be allowed in. Trump gave the green light last month, Beijing reportedly approved purchases by ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent totaling 400,000 chips. None of it has actually shipped.

For retail investors holding NVDA this is the most important number to watch next quarter. If China shipments get cleared, $78B guidance was conservative. If export controls tighten again under a new ruling or executive action, Nvidia has already guided around it and the impact is priced in.

The other thing worth watching: Q4 GDP came in at 1.4% today vs 3.0% expected, with core PCE at 3.0%. The market is ignoring it because of NVDA but if you hold rate-sensitive names, REITs, utilities, regional banks, that macro combination matters more than anything Nvidia did tonight.