Briefings from Goldman Sachs:
Gold has capped off a huge 2025 rally with a blazing start to 2026. While prices declined in early trading on Friday, Anshul Sehgal, global co-head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, says the precious metal could continue to rise.
The main driver of the move has been global central banks’ shift from the US dollar to precious metals, Sehgal says.
“These are tiny markets compared to global stocks or fixed income, so the smallest change in demand makes prices go parabolic.
Sehgal that only about 5% of the world’s gold is currently held by speculators. “If a central bank decides they want to pivot away from the dollar and own more gold, that is going to move the price quite violently. Which is what we're observing.”
For this reason, Sehgal is skeptical of arguments that gold is currently being driven by speculative mania.
“We think this is a multi-decade trajectory," he says. He adds that gold “barely moved” from 2010 to 2020 even as growth-oriented stocks surged, which means the recent move can partially be categorized as a catch-up.
“Do we expect gold to continue to appreciate exponentially as it has? No. But we’re not fussed about there being a lot of froth when it comes to precious metals,” he says.