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REDDIT

Etsy Short Thesis - Near-Term Failure

H
Jan 30, 2026 · 01:50

You should look into Etsy and their general circular internal stock compensation/buyback series. Outgoing CEO Josh Silverman was paid over $200 million in sold stock compensation, at a time when the company was overpaying for acquisitions, as seen in their recent dispositions at a 90% loss. 

While paying executives excessive comp packages, they have announced a non-expiring $1 billion share buyback program as the company sees fit. All the while, they have $3 billion + in debt on the balance sheet that ballooned as a result of the failed acquisitions. The company is not investing in the future, they simply are propping up their share price as the marketplace continues to be flooded with mass-manufactured products and overseas sellers.

Their partnerships with AI are further very ambiguous, costing sellers more, and ultimately removing ETSY's need for existence. AI may eventually replace the marketplace altogether by selling direct and allowing customers to engage directly with sellers without the need for Etsy. 

While some of the above is speculation of the future, the aggressive share buyback program in a time where the company is high in debt, and low in growth, is creating a false sense of value.

Etsy is trading at a 38 P/E after recent decline compared to EBAY's 20 P/E and EBAY has been much more successful in terms of scale, margins, and growth since 2021.

Price Target would be in the low $30s.