Hey everyone,
Here's a look at my strategy.
I'll admit, I'm not a huge precious metals guy.I've got a few ounces of gold I've held for over a decade, some silver coins from when I was a kid, and that's about it.But it's been astonishing to see how much they've risen.
Precious Metals: Still a Good Bet?
Gold hit $4,300, silver almost $70. It's been a great year for them. And a lot of you have been asking about silver. Here's my take: there are good reasons for it to go higher. Industrial demand for solar and EVs is real, there's a supply deficit, and people are looking for alternatives to stocks. It's a perfect storm.
But here's the thing: even with this run-up, silver is still below its 1980 peak if you adjust for inflation. That would put it closer to $150-$200 today. So maybe there's still room to grow. The gold-to-silver ratio also suggests silver might be undervalued.
But long term? I'm still more optimistic about stocks. Precious metals are great for short bursts, but I don't see them as a long-term wealth builder in the same way.
My "Peace of Mind" Strategy: 20% in Treasuries
This is probably the most important part of my strategy. I keep about 20% of my portfolio in a mix of tax-free municipal bonds and treasuries, earning anywhere from 3.5% to 5.3%. This gives me a ton of peace of mind.
If the market falls, I have cash to buy in. If it keeps going higher, that's fine too, because I'm getting monthly income. In hindsight, yeah, I would have made more money just putting it all in the S&P 500. But I put a heavy price on stability. I'm at a point where I'm playing not to lose, not necessarily to maximize every single dollar.
Bitcoin: My 10-15% Gamble
I allocate about 10-15% of my portfolio to a Bitcoin ETF. This is an amount I'm willing to risk. If it goes to zero, so be it. But long term, I'm optimistic. I have no doubt the Fed will just keep printing more money, and people will be looking for a digital store of value. As long as I'm not holding on to dollars, I'm happy.
My Outlook for 2026: Lower, Choppier Returns
So what do I think about 2026? Generally, I do worry that AI valuations are getting a bit out of hand. It seems a bit frothy. But that's not stopping me from buying in. Who knows what's going to happen? I'm not going to try to time the market.
The general consensus seems to be that we're not likely to see one asset class explode in price, but instead, we're probably entering a time of lower, choppier returns. More volatility, fewer easy wins.
My Unchanging Strategy
So whether this year turns into the next generational buying opportunity or the one that tests everyone's patience, my strategy is going to be the exact same:
Keep buying in consistently.
Diversify through index funds.
Don't panic when the market drops.
At the end of the day, the future is likely going to reward consistency, patience, and discipline. Markets tend to punish people who chase headlines, overleverage, and try to outsmart everyone else. The easiest way to come out ahead is to just keep it simple.
What are your thoughts? How are you positioning for 2026? Let's discuss.