I'm trying to get my head around two signals that seem to be in conflict.
On the one hand, we have one of the highest Shiller PE ratios in history (you know, other than October 1999) and an index like FTSE All-world says we're up 24.32% in the last year. Those numbers seem to point to bubble.
On the other hand, that same index says we're up 9% per year over 5 years, 11% over 10 years, and 8% over 20 years. And, since the MSCI World returns for 50 years is 9.8%, those numbers seem to say "yeah, but over the long term this looks pretty normal."
If this *were* a bubble, wouldn't a crash substantially change the long-term numbers in a way that was very unexpected?
To be clear, I'm a Boglehead and my money's not going anywhere. I'm just trying to understand the news cycle and my occasional sense of dread.
What am I missing?