Profitting from the Venezeula Crisis - Heavy sour crude (Long $CNQ)

This is the mechanism:

1. PADD 3 refiners (Valero, Chevron, Phillips 66) are historically short on heavy sour crude due to Mexican export cuts
2. Refiners will draw down commercial inventories
3. If the coup takes longer than 30 days, inventories hit critical lows
4. Bid up Canadian WCS to panic levels
5. CNQ targets 1.59 – 1.65 million BOE/d in 2026, with \~25% as heavy sour crude. WCS goes up, profit margins for CNQ goes up
6. CNQ goes up sharply
7. Sell for profit
8. Short CNQ immediately on reversion to mean

Right now the entire O&G narrative is on the supply glut, this present a contrarian buying opportunity for this thesis. The longer the Venezeula war goes, the better the thesis plays out.