What is your guess of what SGOV will return in 2026? And is this dictated by the Fed decision or also the changing yield curve?

Currently SGOV has a 3.82% 30 day SEC yield. Since we just had a rate cut I expect that number to go down slightly over the next month.

Looking into 2026, the consensus is that there is going to be at least 1 fed rate cut.

High Yield Savings Accounts usually drop in the same way that the Fed funds rate drops. With one cut, that would bring top HYSAs to 3.25% APY.

But, according to AI:

Forecast for 91-day (3-month) Treasury yields shows:

~3.64% in Jan 2026

~3.11% by Mar 2026

~2.69% by Apr

~2.16% by Jun

~1.95% by Jul

Does this mean we will be seeing SGOV yielding 2% by July even though the fed funds rate is stable with likely only one more cut?

With typical savings accounts, they usually fall by the same percentage as the fed funds rate, but it appears that SGOV would fall by more than a percent more. Is that because unlike savings accounts, treasuries are tied to the yield curve?