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REDDIT

Is Oracle the catalyst that breaks the AI rally?

T
Dec 11, 2025 · 17:33

Most of you have probably seen the report/highlights.

For those who did not, TLDR: revenue slightly missed estimates, capex surged, resulting in negative FCF (-$10 billion).

ORCL is -12.5% as I write these words, SP500 is flat. I wonder when the market starts paying attention to the AI capex problem (or is it a real problem at all?).

It's a big question given the market's dependence on Mag7 and the AI story in general. At the same time, Fed has already decided to start buying shorter-term Treasury securities and is probably just one step away from a full QE.

I wonder if QE makes investors forget about anything else so that the market can tolerate a few quarters of so-so reports (due to surging capex) from tech and keep testing new highs.