I know the jobs data came in better than expected. Probably be revised down though. The 6 month / 12 month rolling average of non-farm payrolls is in a downward trend. Unemployment is now at 4.4%. Up 1% from the cycle low. Every other time in the last 50 years the unemployment rate has gone up 1% from a cycle low there has been a recession.
I get the hype around AI. Sure it will be great, but like most things not as great as expected. It looks like most companies are using this as a reason for layoffs. October was the most layoffs for that month in 20 years.
Anecdotally, I have heard of 3 separate people I know who have been laid off in the past couple of months. Can't remember the last time I heard of one.
The economy relies on the consumer. Less employment, less consumerism. No company is unaffected.
Can't really see how this doesn't end up in a recession / 35%+ market drop.
Would like to hear your thoughts.