A couple of months ago, I pointed out that this looked like [yet another false recession](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1jdku0l/just_another_fake_recession/), and received a lof insults in the comments. Fast forward to now, and the MSCI World (IWDA) is up over 20% from its low. Honestly, I was expecting the downturn to last a bit longer—at least through the end of summer. I didn’t anticipate Trump caving in so quickly, though in hindsight, many predicted it after his meeting with the Walmart CEO and the resumption of container shipments from China. That likely signaled he had received word that the sanctions would soon be lifted.
What stings is that I had already invested a significant amount—€25k—on March 28, right before a 17% drop. I then bought another €5k at the very bottom, intending to DCA €10k per month over the next three months. But I only managed to deploy €15k before the market bounced back. Now prices are already up, and I still have €25k left to invest. I really misplayed this one—bought right before a -15% dump, added more at the bottom but with a smaller position, and planned to average in gradually. Instead, I went from -17% to +2% on my portfolio much faster than I expected, and now I’m stuck with unallocated capital.
Just to clarify, I've consistently been DCAing my salary. This was additional capital that I had parked in a deposit account earning the ECB rate, which has been declining. I wanted to shift it into the market instead. In hindsight, I probably should have just invested it as a lump sum—now I'm unsure whether to spread it out over the next six months and invest it alongside my salary contributions. I regretted putting all this money into the deposit accouint in 2023 because I oversized the emergency fund for way more than what I actually needed.