Tyson Foods ($TSN) just posted strong Q2 earnings last Tuesday:
* Revenue: $13.1B (includes a $343M legal contingency accrual)
* Adjusted Operating Income: +27% YoY
* EPS: Up 48%
* Chicken: Best Q2 since 2016
* Pork: Strongest Q2 in 3 years (+67% adj. op income)
* Free cash flow: $382M
* Dividends paid: $349M
* Liquidity: $3.2B after repaying a $750M term loan
Margins also expanded in their prepared foods segment. Overall, very solid performance across the board.
broader commodity market trends:
* Corn Prices: As of May 2025, corn prices have decreased by approximately 4.09% since the beginning of the year, trading around $4.40 per bushel.
* Soybean Meal Prices: Soybean meal prices have shown a gradual uptrend, influenced by supply constraints and shifting trade dynamics. Prices rose from $417/MT in January to $508/MT by March 2025.
* Poultry Prices: Poultry prices have increased by about 5.30% since the start of 2025, reflecting higher production costs and demand pressures.
That said, I’ve been eyeing $TSN for a while and was already considering a position, this report adds to the case. But I’m still cautious.
The FAO’s food price index just hit 128.3 in April, a two-year high. That’s right near the levels that triggered unrest during the Arab Spring. Wheat and rice are spiking from export restrictions, and dairy is climbing fast due to supply issues in Europe.
Tyson is managing well for now, but if input costs keep climbing or tariffs escalate, that could put pressure on margins by late 2025.
Got the heads-up from LevelFields newsletter they’ve been good at spotting macro shifts early. Still thinking through whether to start a position here or wait for a dip.