Given consumer confidence at five-year lows and job openings drying up, is this a classic late-cycle snap or just tariff-induced chop?

Consumer confidence plunged to its lowest level since May 2020, with the [Fox Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/consumer-confidence-plunged-5-year-low-april?utm_source=chatgpt.com)’s Expectations Index falling to 54.4 in April ,well below the 80 threshold that usually signals a recession, and overall confidence sliding to 86.0. At the same time, U.S. job openings fell by 288,000 in March to 7.192 million,a six-month lowreflecting waning labor demand amid tariff uncertainty [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/global-markets-view-usa-2025-04-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). These twin deteriorations in sentiment and labor demand raise the question: are we witnessing a bona fide late-cycle snap, or is this simply tariff-induced chop?